Kadyrov Jr. met with Putin on the eve of his wedding. This story is overgrown with a lot of rumours, the main one of which is that Ramzan Kadyrov is terminally ill.
So, what this really means:
- Kadyrov is not going to die tomorrow, as many believe. But for some reasons that are still unclear to us (there may also be a deterioration in his physical condition), Kadyrov decided to officially introduce his son into politics. And yesterday’s meeting is, above all, an act of blessing on “this path” from Putin’s side.
2. Anyone who believes that Kadyrov Jr. will become the head of Chechnya tomorrow is mistaken. For now, this is only the probable beginning of the process of coming to power, which will take some time. Now, it is primarily a demonstration of the successor (crown prince) and an observation of the elites and their reaction.
3. Putin’s meeting was clearly being prepared for a certain period of time. The first test stone was “thrown” by Kadyrov a month and a half ago when he made a statement that he is already an “old governor” and must give way to the young. The second such “calling” was made before the New Year when Kadyrov showed how he pushed himself off the floor: thereby he demonstrated that he was not so much in good physical shape as he was definitely not in the dying phase. And finally, we should not forget that Kadyrov specifically promoted the story of his sons’ “going to war”.
4. It should not be forgotten that Putin has recently distanced Kadyrov somewhat against the background of the latter’s active media campaign criticizing the General Staff Chief Gerasimov. At the same time, unlike Prigozhyn, Kadyrov understood the hint and practically “shut up”, ceasing to criticize the army leadership.
5. A separate plot in this story is the poisonous letter from which one of the Chechen military commanders, Apta Alaudinov, suffered. Kadyrov’s relationship with Alaudinov cannot be called cloudless, but it is unlikely that the leader of Chechnya could have sent such a letter. The most likely version is that the author of the letter is the FSB, which could hardly have done it without Putin’s approval. This was a warning to Kadyrov and all Chechen elites that their place is Chechnya. From that moment, among other things, Chechens actually stopped appearing in criminal chronicles and scandals. Apparently, everyone was ordered to lie low.
6. The most likely version of the reason for the meeting between Putin and Kadyrov Jr. is to demonstrate that Putin has at least partially forgiven Kadyrov for his previous antics. However, now he keeps him at a distance.
7. Moscow-Grozny relations have developed such a situation that Kadyrov depends on Putin no less than Putin depends on Kadyrov. That is why, despite the latest disagreements and even the probable (though not confirmed) illness of the leader of Chechnya, Putin demonstrates that he does not see any new leader in Chechnya who is not from the Kadyrov clan.
However, according to the Constitution of the Chechen Republic (Article 65), a person under the age of 30 cannot become the head of the republic. Akhmat is only 17 years old. It will be recalled that when Ramzan’s father was killed, Ramzan himself was 27 and Putin did not allow him to run for the post of president of Chechnya, although the Chechen parliament requested it. Ramzan had to wait three years until he came of age. Therefore, until 2035, no one will hear about Ahmad as an heir. That is, Putin will not allow changes to be made to the Constitution of the Chechen Republic.